tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21831933.post8602105962562401800..comments2024-03-04T22:00:31.520-08:00Comments on The Nugg Doctor: Hollinger’s Computer Hates the NuggetsNugg Doctorhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07717046742539283927noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21831933.post-89618099429371504432007-12-10T17:57:00.000-08:002007-12-10T17:57:00.000-08:00I checked Hollinger's rankings again, and up to th...I checked Hollinger's rankings again, and up to this point the Nuggets haven't just had one of the easiest schedules in the league- they've had the league's easiest schedule. This doesn't take into account which of those games were home and which ones were away (although this factors into point differential, with the road team picking up three points), nor does it take into account the effect of back-to-backs (a factor that I think has helped the nugs more than hurt them), but it still means we've played more bad teams than anyone else in the league, and fewer good ones. I just wish we would have taken a little better advantage of it.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02907038934251022960noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21831933.post-80910030515285984032007-12-10T16:25:00.000-08:002007-12-10T16:25:00.000-08:00The problem doesn't lie with Hollinger's system, i...The problem doesn't lie with Hollinger's system, it lies with your understanding of it. So many people (apparently yourself included) look at rankings like these and instantly dismiss them as useless because of a few perceived incongruities and maybe even what seems like an outrageous claim or two. The truth is, none of these systems (and this is something even Hollinger frequently notes) proclaim to be literal predictions for how the season will unfold--only useful ones. For instance, you have to know before looking at the chart that the machine has NO idea who is playing--it only takes into account team stats. Thus, Hollinger's predictor doesn't know that the Nugs are missing two key players in Nene and Atkins, just like it won't know it once they've returned. It does, however, know and point out several useful truths-- one being that, while the nugs are tied with the jazz in the standings, they have also played by far one of the easiest schedules in the league so far. Can the nuggets start consistently beating good teams? I hope so, but the computer isn't inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt, and I'm not sure I am either. <BR/><BR/>I agree that the nuggets aren't exactly the best candidates for statistical scrutiny, mainly because they have significant injuries and I (as well as any fan who's watched this team over the years) knew coming into the season that the nugs were going to have significant consistency issues at the beginning of the season, but that doesn't mean you wouldn't learn a few things about the boys in blue from a closer look. (A good start would be to realize that the system simply extrapolates an estimate of how a team is playing RIGHT NOW over the course of the season--do you think the nugs are playing championship caliber, or even division winning, basketball right now? Honestly? In my opinion, and the computers back me up, the nugs have a lot of growing up and healing to do before they're where they need to be. But mostly growing up.)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02907038934251022960noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21831933.post-49951943053831392462007-12-08T11:01:00.000-08:002007-12-08T11:01:00.000-08:00I was checking out some of his ridiculous rankings...I was checking out some of his ridiculous rankings last night. Some of which had us barely finishing 8th and another that had us not making the playoffs! I put this at the top of the "ESPN feels they need to provide us with some new BS" list. Nuggets Nation knows damn well we're makin the playoffs and hell, we might even cause some trouble in em.ThaAnswerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16062865116222734013noreply@blogger.com